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Monday, May 17, 2021

Humble Trader weekly study 06-May-2021






 

 
Notable recap and read from last week’s watchlist:
 
LEXX – "Key level is $5.50-$5.25. If LEXX can stay over $5.5 it can make a move back to $9, $7 and $8.5. On the flip side, if it breaks under $5.25, it becomes weak and probably heading back to low $5s and $4s. Not really looking to long LEXX but if it is somehow able to push toward $7 and $8s, I will be looking to short it back to $5s. Over $9, I will leave it alone.”
Nailed this read in that every time LEXX pushed toward $7s, it got sold into and dropped back to $6s and $5s. Every single time. That said $5s keep holding as well. So next time it breaks out of $7s or breakdown under $5, things will blow up either direction.
 
LEDS – Key level is $7.5-$7.25. If LEDS can stay over $7.5 it can make a move back to $9, $10 and $11. On the flip side, if it breaks under $7.25, it becomes weak and probably heading back to $6s and 5s. Expecting this to trade similar to LEXX and so my plan will be similar as well, not really looking to long LEDS but if it is somehow able to push toward $11 and 12s, I will be looking to short it back to $7. Over $13, I will leave it alone.”
LEDS read was right on. Was short biased off $12 push to short into which is exactly what happened and how I traded it. Shorted $12s and it faded all the way to $6s rest of the week. Nailed it.
 
FNKO – "Key level is $24.5. If FNKO stays over $24.5 and breaks out of $25.5 on Monday, this could be heading to $28 and $30. On the flip side, if it goes under $24, it becomes weaker and probably heading back to $23 and then $22. Bullish on the name but on pullback to key levels, i.e. $24.5s. Under $23, not touching it anymore.”
Actually pushed toward $25.5 but was not able to reclaim that and once $24.5 flushed, and it dropped all the way back to $21 on Tuesday, before rallying back to $24.5s. That key level again. Decent read on the levels but not on the bias, turned out to be weaker than expected. This is why we have a plan which includes "what ifs".
 
BTX – "Key level is $26.5-$26. It’s a earnings multiday runner, will make sure to not chase this but rather buy into pullback to key level. If BFGV pulls back stay over $26 it remains strong and this could be heading back to $29, $30, over $30 watchout. On the flip side, if it goes under $25, it becomes very weak and probably heading back to $24 and then $22. Similar to FNKO, bullish on the name but on pullback to key levels, i.e. $26s. Under $25, bearish.”
Nailed this one, somewhat. On Monday it made the move to mid $30s in PM without giving me the pullback I was looking for. That said, once it started flushing, it eventually got to $26s on Tuesday and if you had the levels drawn out, it bounced right off that to $31s before pulling back again. Sometimes moves are already made in PM and it's fine, let it play out without FOMO-ing, but do keep if these moves pulls back to the key levels eventually. 

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