✅ Phase 1 — Lesson 1: Win Rate + Risk/Reward + Expected Value (EV)

1) Win Rate

This is simple:

Win Rate = (Number of winning trades ÷ Total trades) × 100

Example:

If you win 6 trades out of 10 trades → 60% win rate

2) Risk/Reward (R:R)

This means:

How much you risk vs how much you can gain

Example:

You risk $50

You try to make $100

That is: 1 : 2 (risk 1, reward 2)

3) Expected Value (EV)

This is the MOST important thing in trading.

Formula:

EV = (Win% × Avg Win) − (Loss% × Avg Loss)

What is delta

 

Booker age choice

 

Agenda- Techical analysis

 

SPY Scalping photo album

 ကျနော် SPY Scalping လုပ်ထားတဲ့ Photos တွေကို Album တခုထဲ ထည့်ထားပါတယ်၊ ပြန်ရှာဖတ်ရလွယ်အောင်ပေါ့။ သုံးနေတဲ့ Indicators တွေ၊ စွဲကိုင်ထားတဲ့ Scalping Strategy တွေ အကြောင်း တတ်နိုင်သမျှ ရေးသွားမှာပါခင်ဗျ။

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သင်ဆရာ၊ မြင်ဆရာ၊ ကြားဆရာ အားလုံးကို ဦးခိုက်လျက်

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မင်းသုအောင်

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မည်သည့် ဝန်ဆောင်မှုမှ မပေးပါ၊ သင်တန်း မပေးပါ၊ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံဖို့ ငွေကြေး မတောင်းခံပါ။ စတော့မားကက် အကြောင်း ဗဟုသုတအဖြစ် ဝေမျှခြင်း ဖြစ်ပါသည်။ ဖြစ်ပေါ်လာသော ဆုံးရှုံးနစ်နာမှုများအတွက် မည်သည့် တာဝန်မှ မယူပါ။ သေချာလေ့လာပြီးမှ ရောင်းဝယ်စေချင်ပါသည်။ ကျနော်လည်း လေ့လာနေဆဲ Stock Trader တဦးသာ ဖြစ်သည်။

ကျနော် SPY Scalping လုပ်ထားတဲ့ Photos တွေကို Album တခုထဲ ထည့်ထားပါတယ်၊ ပြန်ရှာဖတ်ရလွယ်အောင်ပေါ့။ သုံးနေတဲ့ Indicators တွေ၊ စွဲကိုင်ထားတဲ့ Scalping Strategy တွေ အကြောင်း တတ်နိုင်သမျှ ရေးသွားမှာပါခင်ဗျ။

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မင်းသုအောင်

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မည်သည့် ဝန်ဆောင်မှုမှ မပေးပါ၊ သင်တန်း မပေးပါ၊ ရင်းနှီးမြှုပ်နှံဖို့ ငွေကြေး မတောင်းခံပါ။ စတော့မားကက် အကြောင်း ဗဟုသုတအဖြစ် ဝေမျှခြင်း ဖြစ်ပါသည်။ ဖြစ်ပေါ်လာသော ဆုံးရှုံးနစ်နာမှုများအတွက် မည်သည့် တာဝန်မှ မယူပါ။ သေချာလေ့လာပြီးမှ ရောင်းဝယ်စေချင်ပါသည်။ ကျနော်လည်း လေ့လာနေဆဲ Stock Trader တဦးသာ ဖြစ်သည်။

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See translation

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January 28, 2026 SPX Index Scalping

January 28, 2026

ဒီနေ့ SPX Index Scalping လုပ်ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။

ဈေးကွက် Indicator တွေနဲ့ LuxAlgo Indicator တွေသုံးပြီး 30sec timeframe နဲ့ trade ဖြစ်ပါတယ်။

 Downtrend လဲဖြစ်၊ VWAP & SMMA 200 နားမှာ Triple Top ဖြစ်သွားတာလေးလဲ လှပါတယ်၊ 

နောက်တကြိမ် SMMA နားမှာ reject ဖြစ်ပြီး 

STOP sign ပေါ်သွားတာလဲ သဘောကျမိပါတယ်။

မင်းသုအောင်

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01 4️⃣ When to choose a PUT 📉

 

4️⃣ When to choose a PUT 📉

You buy a PUT when:

✅ Price rejects VWAP
✅ Red candles with volume
✅ Breakdown below MA
✅ Target = Lower Bollinger Band

Example:

Good PUT choices:

• 688 Put (ATM)

• 687 Put if breakdown confirms

⚠️ Don’t buy puts:

• When price is holding VWAP

• When candles are small

• When IV is expanding too late

---

5️⃣ Why your CALL lost value (-50%)

From your screenshot:

• You bought 688 Call

• Price stayed flat

• No strong move

• Theta decay + IV drop

➡️ Even if price doesn’t drop much, options still lose money

---

6️⃣ Simple decision checklist (use this EVERY trade)

Before buying CALL or PUT:

☑ Is price above or below VWAP?
☑ Is there volume confirmation?
☑ Is price at support or resistance?
☑ Is this trend or chop?

If 2+ answers are unclear → NO TRADE

---

7️⃣ Pro tip (very important for SPY 0DTE)

✔ Trade after direction is confirmed
✔ Avoid buying at VWAP
✔ Wait for VWAP break + retest
✔ Use smaller size near midday

✅ Step-by-step to draw a retest line

1) Find the breakout candle

Example:

• Price breaks above resistance

• or breaks below support

2) Draw a horizontal line

Draw the line at:
✅ the old resistance (for bullish breakout)
or
✅ the old support (for bearish breakdown)

That line becomes your retest line.

---

🟢 Bullish Retest (CALL setup)

1. Price breaks above resistance

2. Then comes back down to touch that line

3. Candle bounces up again
   ➡️ That bounce = retest confirmation

---

🔴 Bearish Retest (PUT setup)

1. Price breaks below support

2. Then comes back up to touch that line

3. Candle rejects down again
   ➡️ That rejection = retest confirmation

---

⭐ Best tip

Draw the line at the area where:

• many candles touched before

• price reversed before
  That’s your real support/resistance.

• MACD is another great signal for CALL vs PUT 👇

  ---

  ✅ MACD basics

  MACD has:

  • MACD line

  • Signal line

  • Histogram bars

  ---

  🟢 CALL signal (Bullish)

  1) MACD line crosses ABOVE Signal line

  ➡️ bullish crossover
  ➡️ good CALL signal

  2) Histogram turns from red to green

  ➡️ momentum changing up

  ---

  🔴 PUT signal (Bearish)

  1) MACD line crosses BELOW Signal line

  ➡️ bearish crossover
  ➡️ good PUT signal

  2) Histogram turns from green to red

  ➡️ momentum changing down

  ---

  ⭐ Extra strong signals

  🔥 MACD crossing ABOVE zero line

  ➡️ very bullish

  🔻 MACD crossing BELOW zero line

  ➡️ very bearish

  ---

  ⚠️ MACD Dead zone

  • MACD and signal line are tangled

  • histogram is small
    ➡️ sideways / no trend

• ✅ If RSI is already LOW (below 30–40)

  ➡️ PUT is NOT safe
  Because price is already oversold, so it can bounce up anytime.

  ---

  ⭐ When PUT is safer

  ✅ RSI is high and turning down:

  • RSI above 60–70

  • then RSI starts dropping
    ➡️ safer PUT signal

  ---

  📌 Simple rule

  • RSI low = safer CALL bounce

  • RSI high = safer PUT drop

• 
  

01 1️⃣ What ITM vs OTM really means (quick)

1️⃣ What ITM vs OTM really means (quick)

CALL options

• ITM Call → strike below current price
  👉 SPY 688 → 687 / 686 Call

• OTM Call → strike above current price
  👉 SPY 688 → 689 / 690 Call

PUT options

• ITM Put → strike above current price
  👉 SPY 688 → 689 / 690 Put

• OTM Put → strike below current price
  👉 SPY 688 → 687 / 686 Put

 

RSI cross

RSI cross ( price going up call bias) 

RSI and moving average cross shows momentum

RSI cross above 30 momentum turn bullish 

RSI cross above 50 bullish trend 

RSI cross above 70 overbought careful ( should exit) 

RSI crossing down 

RSI below 70 momentum weakening 

RSI cross below 50 bearish control

RSI  below 30 oversold  bounce possible

dOWN TREND

 UP BAR END OF ONE MINIUTE CANDLE CAN CHECK AND START IN 

EMa 50 ABOVE YOU CAN CALL 

ORV LINE BETWEEN AND EMA 50 CROSS LINE ( NOT SURE YET DON'T GET IN TRADE ) 

inside bar ( 

bin bar 

candle 

widge 

body 

how the candle coming in next minute 

to get in call order POC , 9-21-50  no volume - you need to wait 

RSI overbought 

protect your capital 

don't get in trade when not confirm 

IN DOWN TREND DON'T CALL

 IN DOWN TREND DON'T CALL 

in the money and out of money

• 
• 
  
•  Current price (from your screenshot)
• 
  
• SPY ≈ 690.53
• 
  
• Put options in your image
• ✅ ITM PUTS
• 
  
• These have strikes above 690.53
• They already have intrinsic value.
• 
  
• 691 Put → ITM
• 
  
• 692 Put → ITM
• 
  
• 693 Put → ITM
• 
  
• That’s why:
• 
  
• Their prices are higher
• 
  
• % change is large (but negative today because SPY moved up)
• 
  
• ⚖️ ATM PUT
• 
  
• 690 Put → Essentially ATM
• 
  
• Very sensitive to price movement (high gamma)
• 
  
• ❌ OTM PUTS
• 
  
• These have strikes below 690.53
• They only have value if SPY drops.
• 
  
• 689 Put → OTM
• 
  
• 688 Put → OTM
• 
  
• That’s why:
• 
  
• Their prices are cheap
• 
  
• They are losing value fast on a bullish move
• 
  
• In a bullish chart context
• 
  
• Since SPY is going up:
• 
  
• Puts lose value
• 
  
• OTM puts decay fastest
• 
  
• ITM puts lose value more slowly (they still have intrinsic value)
• 
  
• Quick cheat sheet
• Put Strike Status Why
• 693 ITM Strike > SPY
• 692 ITM Strike > SPY
• 691 ITM Strike > SPY
• 690 ATM Near SPY price
• 689 OTM Strike < SPY
• 688 OTM Strike < SPY

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Webull တွင် Paper Trading Layout Set up ပြုလုပ်ပုံအဆင့်ဆင့် #စျေးကွက် #z...

Recording 1

 

QNCX one year

QNCX

Quince Therapeutics, Inc. (QNCX) is currently trading at $1.80, down $0.20 (10%) from the previous close.

This decline may be influenced by the company’s recent financial performance. In the third quarter of 2024, Quince Therapeutics reported a net loss of $53.12 million. 

Additionally, the company has been involved in legal proceedings, including a class-action lawsuit alleging violations of securities regulations. Such legal challenges can negatively impact investor sentiment and stock performance.

It’s important to note that stock prices are influenced by various factors, including company performance, legal issues, and overall market conditions. For the most accurate and up-to-date information, consider consulting financial news sources or a financial advisor.

 

 

Min Thi Aung trade

1) Opening prep (6:30 AM PT)

1. Draw the 15-min range
   • Mark 15-min High and Low after the bell.
   • Note if the range is narrow/sideways → expect chop near VWAP.
2. Map key lines
   • VWAP (intraday fair value).
   • 9EMA (very short momentum guide).
   • Any obvious supply/demand zones and a basic trendline.

2) First long (CALL) idea (around 6:43–6:46)

Trigger ingredients he waits for at/near the 15-min Low:

• Price pattern: a Double Bottom at the 15-min Low.
• Candle: a clear momentum candle up from that base.
• MACD: lines crossing up and histogram growing toward/above 0 (momentum confirmation).
• Moving averages: 9EMA crosses above VWAP (bull bias).
• Structure: a small BOS/CHoCH to upside is a bonus.

Entry logic:

• If price reclaims VWAP with a momentum candle and MACD supports, take a scalp CALL.
• Stop-loss: a few ticks below the double-bottom low (or below VWAP if tighter).
• Target/exit: he’s scalping → typically ~3 one-minute candles or first nearby level (prior swing high, micro supply).

3) Read & manage while in the trade

• If 9EMA stays above VWAP and MACD stays strong (above/expanding from zero), let it print those few 1-min candles.
• If momentum stalls at a level, take quick profits (he’s a scalp trader).

4) Flip short (PUT) idea (around 7:19–7:21)

He notices momentum failure:

• MACD: the line moves up toward the zero line but fails to cross and rolls over → momentum weak.
• Pattern: forms a Head & Shoulders near the highs / trendline.
• Structure: loss of the rising trendline/neckline (mini CHoCH down).

Entry logic:

• On the neckline/trendline break with MACD rolling down (histogram heading below zero), take a scalp PUT.
• Stop-loss: just above the right shoulder or above the broken trendline.
• Target/exit: again ~3 one-minute candles or the VWAP/MA below.

He closed the PUT quickly for profit (pure scalp, not a swing).

5) The MACD “zero-line rule” (his main momentum filter)

• Above 0 and rising → favor CALLs.
• Below 0 and falling → favor PUTs.
• At/near 0 in chop → false signals are common; rely more on structure/VWAP (he warns MACD is weaker in sideways).

6) The checklist he’s actually using

For CALL (long) scalp

• At/near key support (e.g., 15-min Low).
• Double Bottom or clear higher low.
• Momentum candle up.
• 9EMA > VWAP (or crossing up).
• MACD crossing up and histogram moving toward/above 0.
• Enter on VWAP reclaim / momentum push.
• Stop under base; take profits fast (3× 1-min bars or first resistance).

For PUT (short) scalp

• Near resistance/top with lower high or Head & Shoulders.
• Trendline/neckline break.
• MACD fails at zero and rolls down; histogram below 0.
• Enter on breakdown; stop above right shoulder; take profits fast at VWAP/next demand.

7) Risk & common pitfalls (how he avoids trouble)

• Trades with VWAP & MACD alignment; avoids pure MACD during sideways.
• Keeps tight stops and fast profit-taking (1-min, ~3 candles).
• Sizes small; one or two precise attempts vs. over-trading.
• Watches for false breaks at VWAP; wants a full candle close or strong impulse, not just a wick.

8) One-page pseudo-rules (you can tape to your monitor)

1. Mark 15-min High/Low, VWAP, 9EMA, trendline.
2. Only trade when price + MACD + VWAP/9EMA agree.
3. CALL: Support + momentum candle + 9EMA>VWAP + MACD→0/above → enter; stop under base; take quick profit.
4. PUT: Resistance/H&S + trendline break + MACD rolls below 0 → enter; stop above shoulder; quick profit.
5. If MACD flat near 0 & price hugging VWAP → stand aside.
6. Max loss per trade small; no revenge trading.

That’s his technique: structure first (range, double bottom, H&S), VWAP/9EMA for bias, and MACD zero-line for momentum confirmation—executed as short, fast scalps on the 1-minute chart.